[Fcalerts-list] Analysis and Action Plan

[Firearms Coalition]

Where We Stand Now and What to do Next

1. We're not in bad shape
2. Contacting Representatives NOW can have a big impact
3. Gun-voters must be even more vigilant to hold Reps accountable

Those of you who read our regular Knox Report in Shotgun News
or other publications and our semi-monthly Hard Corps Report
newsletter, know that we have consistently expressed our belief
that the gun rights majority in Congress was not in serious
jeopardy leading into the mid-term elections. Now that the smoke
has cleared and dust has settled, we are relieved to report that we
were right.
Though control of both the House and the Senate has passed back
to the Democrats, the “pro-gun” majorities in both houses were
substantially deeper than were the Republican majorities;
testament to the wisdom of supporting pro-gun Democrats
whenever possible.

The Senate:
The two most anti-gun Republicans in the Senate were replaced by
two anti-gun Democrats; good riddance. Two solid pro-gun
Republicans were replaced by proven pro-gun Democrats. And
one pro-gun Republican lost to an anti-gun Democrat.
Bottom line; we had 54 to 55 fairly reliable votes out of 100 before
the election and should still have 53 to 54 reliable votes in the new
Senate.

The House:
Several of the gun rights movement’s most reliable allies fell
victim to the democratic process on November 7th, but many of
their replacements have good gun rights records. The final
numbers in the House sort out something like this:

Reliable votes: Before – 230 Now – 224
Fence sitters: Before – 45 Now – 38
Anti-gunners: Before – 160 Now – 175

Where we have enjoyed a pretty solid 25 to 30 vote majority, we
must now get by with a somewhat less reliable 11 to 16 vote
advantage – keeping in mind that we’re talking about politicians so
they’re unpredictable and require constant supervision.

What Now:
What gun-voters need to be doing now is building bridges to their
representatives – Democrat and Republican. Whether in small
groups or individually, we should be contacting our members of
Congress – both veterans and the newly elected – and letting them
know how much we look forward to working with them in the
coming years. It is particularly important that gun rights activists
reach out to newly elected Democrats who ran on a pro-gun
platform. Let them know what we are expecting and that they can
count on us for support as long as we can count on them to support
our rights.

A letter or e-mail is OK but the best thing is to contact the
Representative Elect through his campaign office and ask for a
short, face-to-face meeting. Congratulate him for winning the
election (no harm in letting him assume you voted for him) and let
him know of your deep concern about gun rights. Discuss
particular pieces of legislation that you are interested in seeing
passed and try to get a commitment from him. The most important
thing is to let him know that we are watching to make sure that he
keeps his promises to gun owners.

The change in majorities means changes in Leadership, which
means changes in the make up of committees. It is unlikely that
any pro-gun legislation will make it out of these restructured
committees for the foreseeable future. On the other hand, anti-gun
propositions are not much more likely to come to the floor.
Democrats want to hold and increase their majorities in 2008.
They also want to win the Presidency. That being the case, it is
likely that they will try to stay away from any controversial
legislation that will cost them votes in ’08. Bills which they
consider innocuous like a “gun show loophole” bill (which NRA
has accepted in theory – more info on that soon) or a move to ban
.50 cal’s might make some moves but don’t be surprised if Nancy
Pelosi keeps them from coming to the floor for a vote. She knows
that the gun issue has sunk many a politician and she doesn’t want
her hard-won majority falling into that trap.

Summary:
All in all, gun-voters fared rather well in these elections. The
Democrats’ move toward support of gun rights is a significant
development. It would be nice to see some serious competition
between the parties with each trying to establish themselves as the
party of gun rights. It is very important that we let our elected
officials from both parties know that we are monitoring their
actions closely and that they will be held accountable for those
actions.

Take advantage of the next couple of months to get to know the
new guys and let them get to know you and perhaps we can even
get more out of the Democrats – who want to prove themselves
worthy of our support – than we have been able to get out of the
Republicans – who tend to take us for granted.

Don’t be sucked into the doom-and-gloom mentality. Gun owners
are not in bad shape at all and we can improve our position before
the new Congress convenes in January by making contact and
building bridges.

Yours for the Second Amendment,

Jeff Knox
Director of Operations
The Firearms Coalition